”…The normal outcome of a situation like this one, in which neither Iran nor the United States can afford to cross the other’s red lines since the consequences would be too great for each, would be some sort of negotiation toward a longer-term accommodation. Ideology aside — and the United States negotiating with the ”Axis of Evil” or Iran with the ”Great Satan” would be tough sells to their respective domestic audiences — the problem with this is that it is difficult to see what each has to offer the other. What Iran wants — a dominant position in the region and a redefinition of how oil revenues are allocated and distributed — would make the United States dependent on Iran. What the United States wants — an Iran that does not build a sphere of influence but instead remains within its borders — would cost Iran a historic opportunity to assert its longstanding claims.
We find ourselves in a situation in which neither side wants to force the other into extreme steps and neither side is in a position to enter into broader accommodations. And that’s what makes the situation dangerous. When fundamental issues are at stake, each side is in a position to profoundly harm the other if pressed, and neither side is in a position to negotiate a broad settlement, a long game of chess ensues. And in that game of chess, the possibilities of miscalculation, of a bluff that the other side mistakes for an action, are very real.
Europe and China are redefining the way the world works. But kingdoms run on oil, as someone once said, and a lot of oil comes through Hormuz. Iran may or may not be able to close the strait, and that reshapes Europe and China. The New Year thus begins where we expected: at the Strait of Hormuz.”
Stratfor.com: Iran, the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
План пројекта „Национализам и употреба историје – о конфликту у бившој Југославији“
